Over the course of years, ES-335’s from 58 to 64 have proven to be a pretty good investment. Yes, the bottom fell out in 2008 as it did in the real estate market and almost every other market but the recovery has been slow and steady and most models continue to rise. There are exceptions and there are standouts. Bear in mind, I’m not an investment counselor but I know this market so I have some street cred.
There are a couple of things to look at if you are going to convince yourself (and your wife) that the expensive vintage guitar you are looking to buy is an investment. First is, of course, how much can you expect it to appreciate over time. That’s the one nobody can really predict. That’s where the big boys tell you that “past performance is no guarantee, blah, blah, blah”. Professional ass covering is what it is but it’s true. There is no crystal ball. But there are trends, though and the trend has been a steady upward climb in prices for 335’s. That’s the safer kind of price rise. The “irrational exuberance” of 2006-2008 is not happening this time and as long as it doesn’t, the rise could continue back to 2008 levels. And it might not. One thing I can say with some confidence is that the cream of the crop will rise faster than the player grade stuff. There is simply less of it and the demand is still fairly high for collector grade guitars from the fifties and sixties. Note that they ain’t making any more. After 50 or more years, it only makes sense that the number of collector grade guitars not already in the hands of collectors is diminishing. So, don’t look for bargains. The likelihood is that the collector grade guitars that come to market are coming from the collectors themselves. Player grade guitars can be a good investment as well for reasons you might not expect.
That’s where liquidity comes in. Lots of players who buy guitars from me are stretching their finances to get something from the era that has some issues but is still a decent investment that will at least hold its value and perhaps appreciate ahead of inflation. The question that often arises from buyers like this is “what if I have to sell it?” Here’s a good example. You’ve got $12000 to spend and you can buy a Bigsby 64 with some further issue like Grovers on and off or maybe a wrong part or two-nothing drastic like a refinish or repair. For that same $12000, you can buy a no issue 61 ES-345 stop tail in really good shape. Not mint but, say, a 9.0. Which is the better investment? I would say the 64 for this type of buyer. First, he’s going to play it, not put it in a closet and that 9.0 condition 61 may not stay 9.0 forever. Moreover, and this is key, the 64 is way easier to sell. There are many more buyers for a well priced 64 335 than any well priced 345, even the very sellable and desirable big neck early 59. You may ultimately get more dollars for that nice 61 ES-345 but you won’t necessarily get them quickly and sometimes speed is more important than actual dollars. Another great example of this is rare one offs. I love one offs and rarities and have trouble resisting them. I’ll take any black 335 (or Pelham Blue Trini) that comes along and not worry that it might take me a year to sell it. That way I get to play it for a year. But for you as an investor? Maybe not such a great idea unless you know you’ll never have to sell it.
So, which 335’s are the easiest to sell? Red 64 ES-335’s are the easiest for sure. It doesn’t even matter what condition-there are buyers for mint ones and buyers for beaters. Bigsby/Custom Mades are less desirable than stop tails but they sell faster because they can be thousands of dollars less. Late 63 335’s too. Next, even though the price range is totally different, are 59 dot necks. 58 335’s are up there too. That leaves 60, 61, 62 and early 63’s. Great guitars-all of them and good investments too. They will rise with the market and always have buyers but simply not as many buyers as the others. The reason for this is simple. Big neck guitars sell better than slim necked ones. I’m not sure more players actually prefer them but the investor does for sure. You’ll pay a premium but you’ll also have an easier time recouping your investment should the need arise. And you can play your investment. Let’s see you play “Steppin’ Out” on an Apple stock certificate.